太空天气

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Nov 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 02-Nov 04 2026 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 02-Nov 04 2026

             Nov 02       Nov 03       Nov 04
00-03UT       2.67         1.67         1.67         
03-06UT       3.00         2.00         2.00         
06-09UT       3.00         1.67         1.67         
09-12UT       2.67         1.33         1.33         
12-15UT       2.00         0.67         1.33         
15-18UT       2.00         0.67         0.67         
18-21UT       1.67         1.67         0.67         
21-00UT       2.00         1.33         1.67         

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 02-Nov 04 2026

              Nov 02  Nov 03  Nov 04
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 02-Nov 04 2026

              Nov 02        Nov 03        Nov 04
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Nov 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4564 (N04E29, Cro/beta)
produced an impulsive C1.1 flare at 01/1236 UTC, the strongest of the
period. The region was in a phase of gradual decay over the past 24
hours.

Other activity included eruptive activity along a filament channel in
the NW quadrant beginning after ~01/1500 UTC. Subsequent SOHO/LASCO C2
coronagraph imagery contained a slow-moving CME signature beginning at
01/1848 UTC. Additional imagery is needed to analyze the event for any
Earth-directed components.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for
isolated C-class flares through 04 Nov.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 5350pfu observed at 01/1550 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux remained steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high
levels through 04 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected
to continue at background levels through 04 Nov.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a positive
polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength gradually declined from a
peak of 9 nT to ~5 Bt at the end of the UT day. The Bz component reached
a brief maximum southward deflection of -7 nT early in the period. Solar
wind speeds gradually declined from ~575 km/s to ~460 km/s over the past
24 hours. Phi angle transitioned from mostly positive to variable after
01/0742 UTC.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely to continue through 02 Nov due
to waning positive polarity CH HSS influence. A return to mostly nominal
conditions is expected over 03-04 Nov.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels early in the
period due to positive polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach unsettled levels on 02 Nov,
with mostly quiet conditions likely on 03-04 Nov, as CH HSS influence
wanes.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2026 Nov 02 0218 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2026-11-02
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2026 Nov 02      95          10          3
2026 Nov 03     100           5          2
2026 Nov 04     100           5          2
2026 Nov 05     105          10          3
2026 Nov 06     110          10          3
2026 Nov 07     115          10          3
2026 Nov 08     115           5          2
2026 Nov 09     120          15          4
2026 Nov 10     115          10          3
2026 Nov 11     110          10          3
2026 Nov 12     110          10          3
2026 Nov 13     105           5          2
2026 Nov 14     105           5          2
2026 Nov 15     105           5          2
2026 Nov 16     100          10          3
2026 Nov 17      95          20          5
2026 Nov 18      95          20          5
2026 Nov 19      90          10          3
2026 Nov 20      90           5          2
2026 Nov 21      85           5          2
2026 Nov 22      85           5          2
2026 Nov 23      85           5          2
2026 Nov 24      90           5          2
2026 Nov 25      95           5          2
2026 Nov 26      95          10          3
2026 Nov 27      95          24          5
2026 Nov 28      95          20          5

:Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt
:Issued: 2026 Nov 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#             Summary of Space Weather Observations
#
:Solar_Region_Summary: 2026 Nov 01
# Region   Location         Sunspot Characteristics
#           Helio                      Spot  Spot  Mag.
# Num   Lat.,CMD  Long.  Area  Extent  class count class
 4564    N04E29    203     20     8     CRO    9      B
 4565    N14E47    184     40     2     HSX    1      A