強閃焰一定會帶來極光嗎？
不一定。閃焰不等於朝向地球的日冕物質拋射；極光還取決於抵達地球的太陽風、磁場方向、位置、黑夜與天氣。
太空天氣
今天太陽活躍嗎？查看太陽閃焰、磁暴與太陽風的最新觀測，再搭配所在地的極光預報，了解觀測機會。
G0
實際觀測 · NOAA地磁暴
未達分級S0
實際觀測 · NOAA太陽輻射風暴
未達分級R0
實際觀測 · NOAA無線電中斷
未達分級太陽風速度
474.00 km/s實際觀測質子密度
2.52 p/cm³實際觀測Bt：
3.46 nT實際觀測Bz：
-1.28 nT實際觀測地磁活躍程度 · Kp
3.33 Kp實際觀測Dst 地磁指數
-40.00 nT實際觀測太陽風速度
474 km/s
行星際磁場
3.46 nT
BtBz
Bt 是磁場總強度。Bz 持續為負代表磁場朝南，較有利於太陽風能量進入地球磁場環境，但不保證看得到極光。
閃焰發生機率
預報與警報 →C25%
M1%
X1%
預報與警報
NOAA SWPC ↗未來 3 天 Kp 預報
1.67
Kp預報
Kp 從 0 到 9，達到 5 才進入磁暴分級。它反映全球磁場活動，不是某個城市看見極光的機率。
未來 3 天 Kp 預報官方公報 · 英文原文
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Nov 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 01-Nov 03 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 01-Nov 03 2026
Nov 01 Nov 02 Nov 03
00-03UT 3.67 2.67 1.67
03-06UT 3.00 2.33 1.33
06-09UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 1.33
09-12UT 2.67 2.33 1.33
12-15UT 3.67 2.33 1.33
15-18UT 3.33 2.00 1.67
18-21UT 3.00 2.33 1.67
21-00UT 3.33 2.67 1.33
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are expected on 01 Nov
due to continued influence from a positive polarity CH HSS.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 01-Nov 03 2026
Nov 01 Nov 02 Nov 03
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 01-Nov 03 2026
Nov 01 Nov 02 Nov 03
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.
預報與警報官方公報 · 英文原文
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Nov 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at very low levels. Only minor changes were
observed in Regions 4564 (N04E44, Dro/beta) and 4565 (N13E63,
Hsx/alpha).
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed at the available coronagraph
imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for
isolated C-class flares through 03 Nov.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained steady at background
levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels through 02 Nov, with high levels likely by 03 Nov.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is anticipated to persist at
background levels through 02 Nov.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the onset of CIR ahead of a positive
polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength increased to peak of 12
nT late in the period, with sustained periods of southward Bz reaching
as far south as -11 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from ~350 km/s at
the beginning of the UT day to between 550-615 km/s by the end of the
day. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive solar sector.
.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely to continue through 02 Nov due
to positive polarity CH HSS influences. A return to mostly nominal
conditions is expected over 03 Nov.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field increased to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm
levels due to the onset of a influence form a positive polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels on 01 Nov due to continued influence from a positive polarity CH
HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 02 Nov and quiet conditions
are likely on 03 Nov as CH HSS influence wanes.
27 天趨勢展望官方公報 · 英文原文
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2026 Oct 26 0118 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2026-10-26
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2026 Oct 26 88 5 2
2026 Oct 27 84 5 2
2026 Oct 28 84 5 2
2026 Oct 29 84 5 2
2026 Oct 30 84 5 2
2026 Oct 31 84 30 5
2026 Nov 01 84 20 4
2026 Nov 02 82 10 3
2026 Nov 03 82 5 2
2026 Nov 04 82 5 2
2026 Nov 05 82 10 3
2026 Nov 06 82 10 3
2026 Nov 07 82 10 3
2026 Nov 08 84 5 2
2026 Nov 09 84 15 4
2026 Nov 10 82 10 3
2026 Nov 11 82 10 3
2026 Nov 12 80 10 3
2026 Nov 13 80 5 2
2026 Nov 14 80 5 2
2026 Nov 15 80 5 2
2026 Nov 16 80 10 3
2026 Nov 17 80 20 4
2026 Nov 18 80 20 4
2026 Nov 19 80 10 3
2026 Nov 20 80 5 2
2026 Nov 21 80 5 2
太陽黑子活躍區官方公報 · 英文原文
:Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt
:Issued: 2026 Nov 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Summary of Space Weather Observations
#
:Solar_Region_Summary: 2026 Oct 31
# Region Location Sunspot Characteristics
# Helio Spot Spot Mag.
# Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class
4563 S19W0* 353 10 1 AXX 1 A
4564 N04E44 202 20 7 DRO 3 B
4565 N13E63 183 40 3 HSX 1 A
太空天氣觀測什麼？
太陽活動及其引發的近地太空環境變化。太陽閃焰、高能粒子和地磁暴是不同現象，不能混為一談。
公開科學觀測與預報可能延遲或修訂。預報不保證能看見極光，也不構成運作安全保證；重要決策請遵循官方指引。