How should I read a flare probability?
It is the chance of that flare class during the stated period, not its duration. C, M and X probabilities need not add up to 100%.
Sunspot regions
Sunspots are darker areas on the Sun. Their size and magnetic structure help forecasters assess the chance of solar flares.
Flare probability
Forecasts & alerts →C15%
M1%
X1%
Sunspot regions
2026-10-31 · UTC| Region | Location | Sunspots | Area (MH) | Classification | C / M / X |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4565 | N12E61 | 1 | 60 | A · Hsx | 0% / 0% / 0% |
| 4563 | S19W0* | 1 | 10 | A · Axx | 0% / 0% / 0% |
| 4564 | N04E41 | 4 | 30 | B · Cro | 0% / 0% / 0% |
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Do more sunspots mean a stronger storm?
Sunspot count alone is not enough. Region size and magnetic complexity help assess flare potential, but neither predicts a storm at Earth.
Public scientific observations and forecasts may be delayed or revised. Forecasts are not guarantees of aurora visibility or operational safety. Follow official advice for critical decisions.