Does a strong solar flare guarantee aurora?
No. A flare is not the same as an Earth-directed mass ejection. Aurora also depends on the arriving solar wind, magnetic-field direction, location, darkness and weather.
Coronal mass ejections
A coronal mass ejection, or CME, is a cloud of solar material. Its direction matters: not every eruption reaches Earth, and speed alone cannot give an arrival time.
| Date | Region | Coronal mass ejections · km/s | Location · λ / φ | ½° |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026, 12:36 | 14561 | 218 km/s | 130 / -9 | 10 |
| Oct 29, 2026, 10:36 | — | 287 km/s | 56 / -1 | 30 |
| Oct 28, 2026, 11:12 | 14561 | 329 km/s | 95 / -14 | 10 |
| Oct 28, 2026, 00:00 | — | 399 km/s | -78 / 40 | 15 |
| Oct 27, 2026, 12:53 | — | 302 km/s | — / 29 | 17 |
| Oct 27, 2026, 06:48 | — | 260 km/s | -13 / 46 | 15 |
| Oct 26, 2026, 20:48 | — | 479 km/s | -54 / 38 | 35 |
| Oct 26, 2026, 18:48 | 14561 | 616 km/s | 77 / -15 | 27 |
| Oct 26, 2026, 09:48 | 14561 | 681 km/s | 48 / -8 | 24 |
| Oct 26, 2026, 09:00 | 14561 | 873 km/s | 43 / -7 | 11 |
| Oct 26, 2026, 02:12 | 14560 | 327 km/s | 75 / 8 | 20 |
| Oct 26, 2026, 01:26 | 14560 | 285 km/s | 75 / 2 | 10 |
| Oct 26, 2026, 00:12 | — | 402 km/s | — / 66 | 10 |
| Oct 25, 2026, 19:24 | — | 275 km/s | 60 / -7 | 27 |
| Oct 25, 2026, 09:48 | — | 360 km/s | — / 85 | 24 |
| Oct 25, 2026, 05:00 | — | 246 km/s | — / 21 | 30 |
| Oct 25, 2026, 03:12 | — | 336 km/s | -99 / 44 | 41 |
| Oct 24, 2026, 22:24 | — | 621 km/s | 127 / -16 | 17 |
| Oct 24, 2026, 21:48 | — | 333 km/s | — / 55 | 19 |
| Oct 24, 2026, 20:36 | — | 838 km/s | 121 / -15 | 10 |
| Oct 24, 2026, 18:08 | — | 566 km/s | — / -16 | 10 |
| Oct 24, 2026, 18:00 | — | 251 km/s | — / 1 | 12 |
| Oct 24, 2026, 15:12 | — | 652 km/s | -127 / 51 | 14 |
| Oct 23, 2026, 16:36 | — | 255 km/s | — / 34 | 15 |
| Oct 23, 2026, 10:24 | — | 337 km/s | — / 36 | 17 |
| Oct 23, 2026, 04:18 | 14557 | 597 km/s | 71 / 36 | 26 |
| Oct 22, 2026, 22:12 | — | 381 km/s | — / 39 | 32 |
| Oct 22, 2026, 20:12 | — | 561 km/s | — / 68 | 13 |
| Oct 21, 2026, 20:36 | — | 973 km/s | -164 / 21 | 46 |
| Oct 21, 2026, 13:38 | — | 547 km/s | -172 / 34 | 26 |
| Oct 21, 2026, 08:53 | — | 310 km/s | -33 / 17 | 35 |
| Oct 20, 2026, 14:23 | — | 920 km/s | 149 / 26 | 13 |
| Oct 20, 2026, 09:09 | — | 568 km/s | 172 / 28 | 38 |
| Oct 20, 2026, 07:24 | — | 748 km/s | 161 / 18 | 10 |
| Oct 20, 2026, 01:26 | — | 368 km/s | 172 / 25 | 28 |
| Oct 19, 2026, 19:15 | — | 474 km/s | 130 / 54 | 14 |
| Oct 19, 2026, 14:48 | — | 387 km/s | 149 / 38 | 27 |
| Oct 18, 2026, 23:15 | — | 590 km/s | — / 5 | 20 |
| Oct 18, 2026, 21:30 | — | 375 km/s | 30 / 17 | 10 |
| Oct 17, 2026, 18:12 | — | 427 km/s | — / 4 | 21 |
1 / 3
How can I tell whether a CME may affect Earth?
Check direction and the latest model, not just eruption speed. A halo appearance alone is not confirmation of an Earth impact.
Public scientific observations and forecasts may be delayed or revised. Forecasts are not guarantees of aurora visibility or operational safety. Follow official advice for critical decisions.